July 17, 2026
The past 25 days have been eventful in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriquez carried much of the momentum through June and early July. She won the Democratic Convention straw poll, earned endorsements from former rivals Missy Hughes and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, secured backing from Local 139 Operating Engineers and the Northern Wisconsin Carpenters Union, and she climbed up in recent Wedgewood polling. Democratic power brokers had rallied around Rodriquez as the strongest alternative to far-left candidates State Rep. Francesca Hong and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and were ready to help push her across the finish line.
Then the wheels came off the Rodriquez campaign bus.
More on that later. Let us get to my 25-Day Power Rankings:
- Francesca Hong
- Mandela Barnes
- Sara Rodriquez (Both good and shocking news travel slowly unless someone amplifies it)
- Kelda Roys
- Joel Brennan
Francesca Hong has been in the lead in all three released Marquette Law School polls since last fall and the recently released Wedgewood poll. She was second in the poll Sara Rodriquez released since our last power rankings, but within the margin of error of Barnes. Hong also blew away the field in a recent unscientific online poll conducted by liberal columnist and author of the Recombobulation Area, Dan Shafer. Shafer and Marquette Law Professor John Johnson conducted a rank choice survey of likely Democrat primary voters and Hong was the top-choice of 61% of the 1000+ respondents. The next closest was Sara Rodriquez at 19%. Shafer’s audience is mostly progressive. For the record, I oppose rank choice voting models! Interestingly, Mandela Barnes was tied for last with Joel Brennan. The second choice of Democrat voters who support Rodriquez, this would be important if she suspends her campaign, was tie between Hong and Kelda Roys at 29% each.
Hong has the best ground game. Hong supporters are enthusiastic, and highly engaged. No other Democratic campaign can match that.
Most importantly, Hong’s supporters are with her through thick and thin. No matter what happens in the final 25 days, Hong supporters will not abandon her. The question is whether Hong’s base is large enough to win the primary. In a seven-way field, there is no doubt 30%+ would win. In a five-way field, 30%+ might win, but it also may not be enough.
My Democrat friends close to Democrat politics keep telling me the far-left portion of the Democratic base is between 20-25%. They are wrong. It is closer to 35% and growing.
Do not forget key tidbits I shared in previous rankings: 34% of all votes in the August Democrat primary will come from Dane and Milwaukee County. Hong will win Dane County, and it may not be close. Just attend any public function around Madison and Team Hong is everywhere. Her campaign is having fun. That may sound inconsequential, but it is a great indicator of how well a campaign is going.
I am not prepared to predict a Hong victory…yet. She could still use more pieces to fall into place to give her the best opportunity to win. For example, Hong could put 6,000-8,000 people into the Dane County Coliseum for an event with Bernie Sanders and AOC. They are both going to be in Michigan next week for US Senate candidate Abdul Al-Sayed. Why not come to Madison to help the current frontrunner? A Milwaukee event with Mayor Zohran Mamdani would also be big. Remember, primaries are all about motivating base voters to turn out.
Can the Democrat Socialists of America (DSA) pull off a stunning statewide primary win in the swing state of Wisconsin?
Mandela Barnes’ best day in the race was the day he announced last fall.
Every day since, Barnes support has softened or outright declined. Some assumed he had an insurmountable lead based on name ID built from his unsuccessful US Senate race in 2022 against Ron Johnson. His campaign was coasting on name ID for the first four months of 2026 until they realized they were in a highly competitive primary race. It turns out, many Democrats were looking for something else; something fresh.
Barnes could win the Democrat primary. He is close enough to Hong to catch and surpass her if all the stars line up over the final 25 days. He will have to earn it, but there is a path.
Democrat primary voters may be back to giving Barnes a second look based on the implosion of the Rodriquez campaign. In an odd way, it is in Barnes’ interest for Rodriquez to stay in since her voters would disproportionately go to Hong or Roys before him.
But if Rodriquez suspends her campaign and endorses Hong, then all bets are off. An endorsement of Hong by any of the current or former candidates would be the boldest move anyone has made in the primary. The upside is this is where the energy in the Dem party is, the downside is you accept the DSA platform and must defend it. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky famously said, “I skate to where the puck is going, not where it had been.” Well, the Democrat party is moving left nationally and at the state and local level. Will any of the candidates besides Hong skate to where their party is going?
Barnes could use a Marquette poll that shows him in the lead or tied with Hong. He could also use key endorsements from legislative leaders, either of the two Democrat Congresspeople, Governor Evers (not happening), or Rodriquez, Crowley, and Hughes. A third level of earned media support would be endorsements from the mayors in the golden media and voting triangle of Madison, Milwaukee, and Green Bay. All are Democrats. All these things build momentum and are likely to help bring in money in the final weeks of the primary.
It is a surprise I have Sara Rodriquez still in third place. Let me be clear: the gap between Hong, Barnes and third place is massive. This is a two-person race until one of the others does something to get in the game. Rodriquez is having the worst week of her campaign, and her career. But she is not dead yet.
To be clear, Rodriquez can no longer win the primary.
She could be a spoiler or, to a lesser extent, a king or queen maker. If she stays in the race, which is the current plan, Rodriquez could still finish in double digits. Why? Because most people do not follow politics as closely as insiders do. Good and shocking news travels slowly across the state unless someone puts resources behind it. Moreover, her hardcore supporters may accept the narrative that it was the campaign manager’s fault that campaign finance reports were fraudulently inflated.
Do not underestimate voters’ ability to forgive. The calls for Rodriquez to suspend her campaign will increase – including now from former DPW Chair Ben Wikler, a potential US Senate candidate in 2028. Rodriquez’s money that had materialized or was promised will dry up. She will not be able to change the narrative from the bad campaign finance story, and her opponents have already used it against her. In short, her credibility is shot. It is a political death spiral that cannot be reversed. But Rodriquez was far ahead of Roys and Brennan in recent polls and will still be in third in the Marquette poll next week. It takes time for good or shocking news to sink in with voters. Rodriquez will move down in the rankings as more people learn of her campaign missteps.
Multi-candidate primaries often turn into a game of Chutes and Ladders. Hong climbed a short ladder since my last ranking and Rodriquez slipped down a long chute, but she caught a tree branch to remain in third – for now. Barnes, Roys, and Brennan did not move – yet. Time is the most precious resource with 25 days to go. It is cliché, but it is truly now or never to make a move.
Kelda Roys desperately wants to be the alternative to Rodriquez and is hoping the establishment will rally behind her as the remaining “normal” candidate. She has enough money to run a credible statewide ad buy for the remainder of the campaign. But any ad buy that highlights her agenda and does not contrast with Hong is a waste of money. What is the difference between Roys and Hong or Barnes? She wants it to be electability, but there is no evidence she is more electable in the general election than Hong or Barnes.
Her messaging is a little sharper than the others’ (they are trying to kill us!), but she is not pulling votes away from Hong or Barnes. She is talking to undecided Democrat primary voters and there are not enough undecided to make the math work. Roys will need a battle with Hong or Barnes to try and climb up the ladder. Since she has never polled above 5% statewide, it is hard to see a scenario whereby she can move from fourth to first without directly engaging the front runners.
Joel Brennan simply never put himself in a position to be competitive or benefit from major events in the campaign – like the Rodriquez implosion. He ran a campaign that was not a good fit for today’s Democrat primary voters. And we waited far too long to deploy his resource to build his name ID and grassroots support. All public polling shows Brennan at 2% or less.
He was too cautious. Democrat primary voters want a fighter. Frankly, he was the most qualified Democrat candidate based on his experience and background.
But his was a campaign that never was.
His best shots came this week after the Rodriquez scandal. If the Democrat establishment saw him as the best alternative to Hong or Barnes, they would have picked him before they chose Rodriquez.
There are two more significant benchmarks before the final 10-Day Countdown rankings on August 1: The final Marquette Law School primary poll will be released on July 22, and the only statewide televised Democrat gubernatorial debate will occur on WISN-TV on July 28.
The poll will determine who has the momentum for the homestretch and which candidates are still viable. The debate will have fewer candidates on the stage which provides slightly more opportunity for candidates to get their message out. Look for the Marquette poll results to determine how aggressive or safe each campaign plays it in the debate. The pre-primary campaign finance reports come out on August 3rd – after the August 1 rankings.
I will be back here at Dairyland Sentinel with my final rankings at the 10-day mark on August 1. We should know everything we need to know to predict the winner by then.
Previously at Dairyland Sentinel
