The Democrat gubernatorial primary may be 10 days away, but the contest is over.
Francesca Hong will be the Democrat nominee.
She greatly expanded her lead on two publicly released polls this week, and Hong held her own in the only statewide televised primary debate this week. There is no legitimate scenario whereby any of her opponents can catch and surpass her. Here are the final rankings and likely order of finish:
- Francesca Hong
- David Crowley
- Mandela Barnes (suspended campaign)
- Joel Brennan
- Kelda Roys
- Sara Rodriguez (suspended campaign)
- Missy Hughes (suspended campaign)
On Tuesday, July 28th, State Navigate and UpNorth News released a poll of 1085 likely Democrat primary voters that showed the race as: (margin of error+/-3%)
- Hong – 44%
- Crowley – 15%
- Barnes – 14%
- Roys – 4%
- Brennan – 4%
- Rodriguez – 4%
- Missy Hughes – 1%
- Undecided – 13%
On Wednesday, July 29th, Marquette Law School released a poll of 407 Democrat primary voters that showed the race as: (margin of error +/-6.6%)
- Hong – 38% (12% increase from MU poll last week)
- Barnes – 16% (1% increase from MU poll last week)
- Crowley – 7%
- Brennan – 2%
- Roys – 2%
- Undecided – 34%
When leaners are added in the Marquette Democrat primary poll, the race moves to:
- Hong – 46%
- Barnes – 21%
- Crowley – 11%
- Brennan – 4%
- Roys – 4%
- Undecided – 14%
The Marquette poll with leaners and the State Navigate polls are closer to what is going on in the Democrat primary. Hong has a 25% to 29% lead in those polls. Hong will exceed the 42% Tony Evers got in the 2018 Democrat gubernatorial primary. She could easily get a majority of primary votes if Mandela Barnes endorses her and may get a majority regardless because a significant number of Barnes voters have Hong as their second choice according to State Navigate/UpNorth News.
At this late stage in the campaign, the real number of undecided Democrats is probably closer to 15%. Half those saying they are undecided this close to the election are likely to not vote, which means there are not enough undecided voters for anyone else in the primary to challenge Hong.
Barnes suspending his campaign Thursday, the David Crowley endorsement by Congresswoman Gwen Moore earlier today, and the announcement that Governor Evers will fly around the state with his preferred candidate, Crowley, don’t really change the math needed to beat Hong. Frankly, it is too late to change the trajectory of the race.
Barnes had the best chance of anyone else in the race to beat Hong, according to all publicly released polling. He was also the strongest Democrat against Republican Tom Tiffany. But Sara Rodriguez’s implosion at the 25-day mark changed everything. David Crowley reentered the race with an endorsement from Governor Evers and quickly consolidated most of the key trade union endorsements. The problem is he still had very low name ID statewide, and there wasn’t enough time to build it high enough to make a credible challenge.
When Crowley got back in the race, I posted on X that the final weeks would be a battle for the soul of the Democrat party. That never happened. None of the candidates drew a clear contrast with Hong and often appeared to agree with her liberal positions. Crowley said he would have signed the bipartisan school funding and property tax relief bill negotiated by Governor Evers and supported maintaining school choice in Milwaukee, but he didn’t use those issues to remind voters Hong voted against the tax/school funding package and wants to end Milwaukee school choice. He pulled his punches. All of Hong’s challengers did.
Between 30% and 35% of the estimated 500,000 likely Democratic primary voters for August 11 have already cast ballots, either by mail during the early absentee period or through early in-person voting, which began Tuesday. On Wednesday, a Dane County court upheld the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s decision not to allow voters to “spoil” their ballots and vote again if their preferred candidate suspended their campaign. As a result, Barnes, Rodriguez, and Hughes will still receive votes on August 11. In addition, some voters may not know those three candidates have suspended their campaigns, while others may still choose to vote for them on Election Day.
The general election match-up between democratic socialist Francesca Hong and conservative Tom Tiffany is not what most observers expected at the beginning of the year, but it will provide the sharpest contrast of views possible for voters.
For months, many insiders were openly discussing the possibility of a Democrat trifecta whereby Democrats with the governorship and the majority in both houses of the legislature. The Hong v. Tiffany match-up puts a serious wrinkle in that plan because Democrats in swing districts will now have to defend the Democrat Socialist of America (DSA) agenda and everything Hong has said/posted and will say/post going forward. Can Democrat legislative candidates embrace Hong in a swing district? Hong being the Democrat nominee gives the Republicans a much better chance of holding one or both houses of the legislature. And, shockingly, a GOP trifecta in November is possible.
All the national prediction models list Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race as a toss-up. That is a strong starting point for Tiffany. Historical trends in midterms favor the party not in power in the White House, and Tiffany is a sitting member of Congress. Democrats wanted this race to be a referendum on Trump and the economy. And that may be how it works out. But Tiffany and Republicans will seek to make the general election a referendum on the Democrat Socialist agenda. It will be a binary choice for voters.
Republicans have the resources to play offense throughout the general election in Wisconsin. The initial framing of the general election will determine which narrative sticks. I will publish updates at the 50-day, 25-day, and 10-day mark of the general election here at Dairyland Sentinel. The general is only 84 days long. The most important segment of the general is the first 34 days. This is the period where framing the narrative occurs and where candidates define their opponents.
The general election will begin the moment Hong is announced as the winner of the primary on August 11th. Expect Tiffany to have ads on defining her by August 12th. Hong, or ally groups, may also start defining Tiffany then.
Tom Tiffany can win the general election. But it won’t be easy. He will have to overcome historical midterm pressures. If he can frame the race around common-sense v. crazy by highlighting the most extreme portions of the DSA agenda along with Hong’s uber liberal legislative record, then he will show she is way outside the mainstream and too extreme to lead the state.
Hong will receive a major boost from her primary win because she is a democratic socialist who won a competitive primary in a key swing state. Abdul Al-Sayed may finish first next week in Michigan, but Hong’s victory is rare and noteworthy for national media. She has built a strong statewide grassroots movement, and her voters are highly engaged and motivated. The fact that a state legislator from Madison with little initial statewide name recognition could win the Democratic primary speaks to her political skill and savvy.
Still, she benefited from opponents who underestimated the depth and breadth of her appeal among a key segment of primary voters. She also benefited from their unwillingness to draw sharp contrasts with her on major issues important to those voters. But will she have the resources to sustain an 84-day general election? Can she defend the DSA agenda, or at least explain which parts she rejects? Can she defend her very liberal legislative voting record?
We are about to find out which candidate can withstand the bright lights and pressure of a high-profile general election. It is different; much different than any race they’ve ever ran. Frankly, Hong did not fair particularly well in the spin room after the Democrat primary debate this week. The general will be much harder than that.
Buckle up!
