Veteran GOP strategist places Mandela Barnes and Francesca Hong in Tier 1, 75 days from the August 11 primary

Respected Wisconsin political strategist and former Thompson administration official Bill McCoshen released his first 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary rankings on May 28, 2026 — 75 days before the August 11 primary.

McCoshen brings significant experience to the analysis. He managed Gov. Tommy Thompson’s 1994 re-election campaign, widely regarded as the most successful gubernatorial campaign in Wisconsin history. He previously served as Thompson’s chief of staff and as the youngest person ever appointed Secretary of the Wisconsin Department of Commerce. He currently serves as a Partner and member of the Board of Advisors at Michael Best Strategies and is the founder and owner of the NAHL’s Janesville Jets hockey team.

Tier 1

1. Mandela Barnes
2. Francesca Hong

On X, McCoshen wrote:

“Recent private Dem polling shows Barnes in the lead based mainly on name ID. His likability among primary voters remains strong. But he still a long way from the 43% Gov. Evers got in the 2018 Dem primary.
Recent private GOP polling and the past three Marquette Law Polls show Hong in the lead. There is little doubt Hong is in the top two and could win the primary.

“WisVoter analysis shows WI Dem voters moving left. That helps Hong. She is unabashedly a far-left Socialist, and is filling the Progressive/Socialist lane of the primary. Nobody is breaking out in the establishment/moderate lane. For anyone else to win, they have to jump over both Barnes & Hong.”

Tier 2

3. Sara Rodriguez

McCoshen wrote:

“Rodriguez allegedly has serious 3rd party support. One group is running ads on her behalf. The problem is the ads say too much, or nothing at all. They are not compelling or memorable. They won’t move the needle. Rodriguez and her allies will need a sharp contrast with Barnes and Hong or a backroom deal (Dems are very good at this) by party insiders to win. She’s been in the race the longest and hasn’t moved. Time is running out. Worse yet, she cannot get to the left of Barnes and Hong where the energy in the primary lies.”

Tier 3

4. David Crowley
5. Missy Hughes
6. Kelda Roys
7. Joel Brennan
8. Kirk Bangstad

In his Tier 3 assessment, McCoshen noted:

  • Crowley has won twice in Milwaukee County and has trade union support but has run a low-energy campaign and suffered unforced errors.
  • Hughes has been the biggest mover after supporting the bipartisan tax relief package, which tested as popular in Marquette polling.
  • Roys has WEAC backing but has struggled to break through or move further left than the top two.
  • Brennan’s campaign has been “vanilla and benign” despite his experience running Tom Barrett’s gubernatorial campaigns.
  • Bangstad has generated little activity since a noisy launch and may struggle to qualify for the ballot.

McCoshen’s rankings reflect a primary environment in which the progressive lane appears energized while no clear establishment or moderate candidate has broken out of the pack.

The Democratic primary for governor is scheduled for August 11, 2026.

Dairyland Sentinel will continue providing updates and analysis on the 2026 election cycle as new polling, candidate developments, and field activity emerge.

McCoshen stated he plans to release updated rankings at the 50,25 and 10 days before the August Primary.