This race is too close to call. Both candidates have done a respectable job increasing their name ID statewide and driving up their opponents’ negatives.
Here’s part two of my latest analysis. You can see part one, here.
The national political environment provides Crowley with a little tailwind, but he has not moved on the ballot from the first Marquette poll in late August to the one released this week.
Meanwhile, Tiffany has moved up on the ballot. Can Tiffany defy political gravity and pull off a stunning win? Well, this would not be the first time a GOP candidate for governor named Tom (Tommy) won in a bad midterm year with a Republican president in the White House. Tommy Thompson did it in 1986.
More recently, David Crowley came back from 22-31 points down in the final week of the Democrat primary to upset Francesca Hong. That is three to four touchdowns! Coming back from 3 points down seems like a chip shot field goal (unless you are the 2026 Packers).
I have said many times that the candidate is the most important ingredient to a successful campaign. Then it boils down to message, organization, and money (MOM).
Tiffany has a clear lead on statewide organization and money. Tiffany has built the best paid field operation ever on the GOP side. Moreover, he has raised $26.6 million to Crowley’s $10.3 million so far. Both factors will keep this race close until the end and give Tiffany a chance to win many never expected.
The message will be fought inch by inch over the final 31 days. Crowley should have a slight advantage in messaging because of the national mood.
I will provide an update on the 14-day and 7-day mark of the general election. And … I learned my lesson and will do a final update one day out.
Previously at Dairyland Sentinel
