Today’s Key Read is a deep dive into the latest public opinion polling conducted by Marquette Law School.
Since the last time the Marquette University Law School surveyed Wisconsin voters about their election preferences:
- There was a failed attempt to assassinate former President Trump
- Trump named JD Vance his Vice Presidential running mate
- The Republicans had a very successful national convention in Milwaukee
- President Biden announced he would not seek the nomination of his party for a second term
- Vice President Kamala Harris became the defacto Democratic Party nominee
Before all this happened, the race was tight, with the head to head polling within the margin of error.
So how did all this impact the voters’ preferences?
Well, MU Law released their new poll yesterday, and… the race is tight, with head to head polling within the margin of error.
Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds very close race between Harris and Trump and Democratic enthusiasm for voting in presidential race now matching Republican levels | Marquette University
A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds former President Donald Trump with 50% and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, Harris is the choice of 50% and Trump the choice of 49%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.
In June, before the debate between President Joe Biden and Trump and with Biden as the Democratic candidate, Biden and Trump each received 50% among Wisconsin registered voters, while Biden received 51% and Trump 49% among likely voters.
In a multicandidate race, Harris, a Democrat, is the choice of 45% and Trump, a Republican, 43%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry <0.5%, and independent Cornel West <0.5%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 46%, Trump 45%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry <0.5%, and West <0.5%.
…The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The poll included 801 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)
While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 51% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Harris will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know.
The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than the perceived chances with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 20% say Biden would definitely or probably win, while 69% say Trump would win.
A substantial majority (79%) say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 15% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 91% say Biden should have withdrawn.
Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 42% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 10% say they don’t know.
-MU LAW POLL August, 2024
A majority (58%) say Biden should not resign but should serve out his term as president, while 33% say he should resign and 9% say they don’t know.
Democrats are overwhelmingly satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 92% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee and 7% very or somewhat dissatisfied.
The poll was completed before she secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates on Aug. 2. A majority (54%) of Democrats think the party should settle on a nominee before the convention, while almost a third (32%) say there should be an open convention and 13% don’t know.
Favorability
Harris is seen in this survey favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 53% of registered voters, with 6% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. When this question was last asked about Harris in June 2022, 36% had a favorable opinion and 49% had an unfavorable view, with 15% who did not have an opinion of her.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.
In this survey, following the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump in Wisconsin rose to 44%, with 54% unfavorable and 2% without an opinion. In June, his favorability was 41%, with 57% unfavorable and 2% lacking an opinion.
Favorability toward Biden was unchanged from June, following his withdrawal from the presidential race, remaining at 40% favorable, while his unfavorable rating declined one percentage point to 57%.
Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates—the so-called “double haters”—declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 17% were unfavorable to both in June. That group declined to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 11% have an unfavorable view of both in July.
Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 41%, with 29% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans, but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats,… Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and especially independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.]
Enthusiasm
…Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 4. In the current survey, 61% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 46% in June. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with fewer than 50% in all prior Marquette Law School Poll surveys of Wisconsin voters in 2024 saying they were very enthusiastic. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in early August 2020, 62% were very enthusiastic, basically the same level as now matched for the first time in 2024, but such enthusiasm was also seen in earlier Marquette Law School Poll surveys in 2020, unlike this year.
….Enthusiasm has increased primarily among Democrats and, to a lesser degree, among independents and Republicans. Republicans had a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls in 2024, but that has been mostly erased now
…Those who are very enthusiastic give Trump a slight edge over Harris, while those somewhat enthusiastic give Harris an even slighter edge. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins
…In June, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 7. At that time, Trump held a larger margin with the very enthusiastic than he now holds over Harris among that group, and Biden had larger margins over Trump with all other enthusiasm groups than Harris now holds.
Issues
…Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, ensuring fair and accurate elections, and on Medicare and Social Security.
…Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by abortion policy, and immigration, with Medicare and Social Security as fourth most important.
…Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, followed by Medicare and Social Security with the economy third. Only 1% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue concern, as do 7% of independents.
Clearly, there is more enthusiasm among Democrats now that they’ve shed Joe Biden from the ticket. However the voter preference numbers haven’t moved much, yet.
The new MU Law Poll provides a lot of data that basically reinforces the fact that Wisconsin is a key battleground swing state. Expect to see a lot more appearances from the candidates, and a lot more advertising, in the next three months.
