By Joe Handrick for Dairyland Sentinel
President Donald Trump’s Wisconsin victory this month and Senator Ron Johnson’s win in 2022 were nearly identical in terms of percentage margin.
Trump won by 0.9 percent, and Johnson’s victory two years ago was by an almost equally narrow 1 percent.
However, there were some regional differences in terms of where they harvested support.
Trump did better than Johnson in Milwaukee, southwestern, western, and northern Wisconsin, whereas Johnson performed better in central Wisconsin, the Fox Valley, and in the southeast Wisconsin suburbs.
You can see that in 2022, Johnson did better than Trump 2024 in Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington WOW Counties. In the northern WOW I previously analyzed, the % was nearly identical (Trump’s margin was higher due to 2024 turnout).
Looking ahead to 2026, it suggests GOP can keep their hold on the north but do better in the burbs. However, I note there is a modest difference in the percentage of drop off votes from presidential to non-presidential election between the two WOWs.
Any greater drop off in the Northern WOWs would make a statewide victory for the Republicans that much harder to obtain.
