There are two weeks to go in the 2026 elections. The gubernatorial race between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany is statistically tied. Both sides are spending millions trying to persuade their voters to turn out and undecided voters to vote for them. Crowley is aided by a midterm political environment that clearly favors Democrats (party out of power in the White House); he has the advantage in the home stretch. But Tiffany has defied political gravity with a smart, well-funded campaign and hard work and could win the race. For those rereading that last sentence, just remember, Kalshi gave Francesca Hong a 96% likelihood of winning the Democrat gubernatorial primary the day before the August 11th primary.
The general election is much closer than what all the polling said about the Democrat primary. Anything can happen in these final two weeks.
There is a surprising lack of publicly released independent polling in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race. Marquette Law School is the only independent entity to poll the race in late August and late September and will release their final poll on Wednesday October 28th. The question many observers are asking after the Wisconsin Democrat gubernatorial primary polls were off by at least three touchdowns is whether we can believe any of the polls. Are pollsters accurately capturing likely GOP voters in their polls? The two Marquette polls have Crowley at 49% on the ballot. Tom Tiffany was at 44% in August and 46% in late September. Tiffany successfully drove up Crowley’s negatives over the course of the general election from 29% unfavorable in August to 44% unfavorable in late September. Crowley’s net approval is 31% favorable/44% unfavorable or (-13). Tiffany’s favorable is 39% and unfavorable is 45% (-6).
I would expect other national pollsters to release Wisconsin polls in the final two weeks. Pay close attention to the voter screen on any publicly released poll down the stretch. If the poll doesn’t consist of likely voters (LV), you should be cautious about the accuracy of the poll. Just because someone is a registered voter (RV) doesn’t mean they will vote in a midterm. And, Wisconsin has same day registration. The past two midterms (2018 & 2022) produced just shy of 2.7 million voters. That’s a good benchmark for this cycle.
One concern the Marquette poll identified for Tom Tiffany is Republican voters who are unfavorable toward MAGA. Tiffany leads Crowley among these GOP voters 73-20. Meanwhile Crowley is not suffering from leakage of Democrats who oppose the Democrat Socialist of America (DSA) agenda and leads among these Democrats 92-4. It will be interesting to see if either of these changes in the final MU poll.
Many speculate President Trump’s 38% approval rating could also be harmful to Tiffany. That is possible. But these same pundits fail to mention that President Biden’s approval on the September 2022 Marquette poll was only 40% and yet Governor Evers went on to be reelected by 3% , a landslide in modern Wisconsin statewide races.
Crowley needs the race to be about Trump in the final days. Tiffany needs the race to be about readiness to govern and vision for the future.
The final piece of the Marquette poll worth considering are the regional breakdowns of the ballot. Here are the breakdowns – we will see if any of them change on October 28th:
| Region | Tiffany | Crowley |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee City | 25% | 74% |
| Rest of Milwaukee | 50% | 46% |
| Madison | 30% | 66% |
| Green Bay/Appleton | 57% | 39% |
| Rest of State | 49% | 41% |
Crowley needs to win Milwaukee County with at least 75% of the vote, and Dane County with at least 78% of the vote to put himself in a position to win by winning as few as 15 of 72 counties. Tiffany needs to capture at least 28% in Milwaukee County and 23%-24% in Dane County and meet or exceed GOP historical performance in the BOW (Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago) and WOW (Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha) as well as Racine and Kenosha counties to be able to win.
Midterm elections are typically base vs. base; they are all about turnout. That puts a premium on the statewide ground game. Who has the better voter ID and GOTV (get out the vote) operation? And can a strong grassroots effort overcome national trends? We will know in 14 days. Tiffany’s campaign has built the best grassroots operation ever on the GOP side. They are said to have hundreds of paid staff working on ID and turnout. As reference, the successful campaign I ran for Tommy Thompson in 1994 had five (5) paid grassroots staffers. If voters aren’t answering surveys, then you need to meet them where they are to engage, educate and motivate them to vote.
If Tiffany overcomes the national headwinds and wins, it will be in no small part because of the heavy investment he made in his grassroots infrastructure.
Some on the right are excited that early voting appears to be down in key Democrat strongholds such as Milwaukee and Dane County. I wouldn’t hold my breath that those trends will hold. Democrats generally find a way to turn out their voters in those two counties.
The only statewide debate between Crowley and Tiffany is this week. It will be hosted by WISN in Milwaukee with Matt Smith and Gerron Jordan and carried live from 7 – 8 pm on the state’s ABC stations. Don’t worry, there is no World Series game that night! Smith and Jordan are tough but fair. Debates don’t carry the same weight as they used to, but in a margin of error contest any “moment” by either candidate could be the ad we see for the final 10 days.
Both campaigns are controlling what they can control. Neither can control the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers are in the World Series for the first time in 44 years. Wisconsinites will be fixated on the World Series from Friday October 23rd all the way to Halloween if the series goes seven games. There won’t be much oxygen for campaigns to get their message(s) through to voters.
Sure, as my friend Joe Zepecki says, voters can walk and chew gum at the same time. But this feels a lot like the Packers Super Bowl run in 1996 after a nearly 30-year drought. Nobody cared about anything but the Packers. Ideally, the Brewers sweep the series and the final seven days are all about politics. But neither campaign can count on that. Oh, and there would likely be a huge parade in Milwaukee before the election if the Brewers win it all.
The Brewers success simply means the campaign can’t wait to unleash their “October surprise” if they have one on their opponent. Or it will need to be spectacular to stand out against the backdrop of the first World Series in generations. Listen, everyone could use some good news and a little break from politics, and thankfully the Brewers have been providing it.
The bottom line on the race?
It’s too soon to predict a likely winner.
This one could easily go down to the wire and be within 1% (27,000 votes) or 1.5% (45,000 votes). That alone is noteworthy considering the favorable national trends for Democrats. Crowley has an environmental advantage today. The final margin does matter because it will likely impact the legislative races and determine control of both houses of the Wisconsin legislature.
Stay tuned for another update in one week.
Previously…
