A new poll reveals a deadlocked race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, with Republican Brad Schimel and Democrat Susan Crawford each holding 47% of the vote, while 5% of voters remain undecided. The survey, conducted by OnMessage Inc. from March 9-10, 2025, points to crime and public safety as the defining issues that could tip the scales in this pivotal contest..

Schimel, a former state attorney general, and Crawford, a Dane County judge, each face closely split public perceptions. Schimel’s image stands at 45% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while Crawford’s is 45% favorable and 43% unfavorable. The near-even split mirrors the statewide political mood, where a generic ballot shows Republicans at 46% and Democrats at 45%, with 10% undecided. Former President Donald Trump’s image (49% favorable, 50% unfavorable) and Sen. Ron Johnson’s (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable) reflect similar divisions.

Crime dominates voter concerns, according to the poll. When asked their top issue in choosing a justice, 37% cited “fighting to uphold the rule of law,” 20% picked “reducing crime and keeping violent criminals off the streets,” and 19% chose “ensuring that abortion is available and accessible in Wisconsin.” Combined, 57% of respondents prioritized crime-related issues, dwarfing abortion’s pull.

A memorandum summarizing the poll, authored by Wes Anderson of OnMessage Inc. and obtained by Dairyland Sentinel, highlights Schimel’s edge on this front, noting his “proven record of being tough on crime” against Crawford’s “history of releasing criminals early from prison.” It suggests Schimel could sway the 5% undecided bloc, many of whom align with law-and-order priorities.

The poll also offers a glimpse at the broader electoral context. In the race for Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Jill Underly leads challenger Brittany Kinser 33% to 30%, but 38% of voters remain undecided. Underly’s image (28% favorable, 25% unfavorable) outpaces Kinser’s (23% favorable, 16% unfavorable), yet her low support as an incumbent signals vulnerability.

The poll, commissioned for Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, surveyed 600 likely voters across the state via text-to-web interviews. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. With the election now less than three weeks away, the results underscore a tight battle shaped by a polarized political landscape.

With both races hanging in the balance, the results point to a critical stretch ahead. The Supreme Court contest, in particular, could hinge on whether voters see Waukesha County Judge and former Attorney General Brad Schimel or Dane County Judge Susan Crawford as the stronger guardian of public safety.