An Analysis by Wisconsin Elections Data Guru Joe Handrick
Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Wisconsin in 2020 by 0.63% — a margin just more than 20,000 votes. The 2024 race is shaping up to be close as well – either a narrow Trump win or a narrow Harris win is possible.
If Trump and Harris do fight to a draw in Wisconsin, how does that translate down to the state’s 99 assembly districts? On the math, the Republicans would have a small edge. That edge is made modestly larger due to the presence of multiple GOP incumbents.
What would a tie Presidential Race look like at the Assembly District level, and how much would a candidate need to over perform the top of the ticket to win?
In a tie race, we would expect to see Trump gain the majority of votes in 51 districts while Harris would likely win 48. There are a number of districts that would be very close, however, that could go either way.
Below is a more precise forecast.
As you can see, most districts (89 out of 99) will be won by one candidate or the other by more than five points. This is a direct reflection of the fact that voters in Wisconsin have “self-segregated” into either red or blue areas. There simply are not very many purple areas in the state.
Joe Handrick
Most of the attention on election night in the State Assembly will be on those six that could go either way for president, the four that Harris will win but by less than 5 points, and one of the seats Harris will likely win by 5 or more (it has a popular Republican incumbent).
Below is a listing of those 11 districts (in order based on how Trump did in 2020).
The six that could go either way for president
District 30 (Hudson/River Falls area) – This district borders on Minnesota and includes areas that are suburban St Paul. Trump carried the district in 2020 but by smaller margins than other Republicans (due to its suburban nature where Trump struggles). The Republican incumbent (Shannon Zimmerman) out-performed Trump in 2020 by 5 points.
District 85 (Wausau) – Trump carried this district in 2020 and the region has been moving right for the past 10 years. The seat has a Republican incumbent (Pat Snyder). Snyder over-performed Trump in 2020 by more than 2 points.
District 88 (Green Bay suburbs) – The seat has no incumbent as Governor Evers drew him out of the district in the new map. The main cities in the district are DePere, Allouez and Belleview. Trump carried this district in 2020 by just 227 votes.
District 94 (LaCrosse area) – This was the closest district in the state in 2020 (Trump lost by 9 votes). The assembly district is home to one of only a few Democratic incumbents who are in any real danger — Steve Doyle. The district is made up for parts of rural Trempeleau and LaCrosse counties plus a portion of the city of LaCrosse (Although LaCrosse would fit into a single assembly district, the new Evers map divides the city up between three districts).
District 89 (Green Bay area) – The seat includes Ashwaubenon and the western portion of the city of Green Bay — including Lambeau Field. The seat has no incumbent as the old incumbent was drawn out of the seat under the new map. Trump lost this seat in 2020 by 257 votes.
District 61 (Milwaukee area) – The district includes Greendale, Hales Corners, a portion of Greenfield and a few wards from the city of Milwaukee. The GOP advantage here is in the incumbent — Bob Donovan. Donovan was first elected in 2022 when he over-performed other Republicans (by 2 points overall). Trump received 49% here in 2020.
Harris will likely win by 2-5 points
District 26 (Sheboygan) – Trump lost this district in 2020 by approximately 1,000 votes. It includes the city of Sheboygan and two neighboring towns. The incumbent is GOP representative Amy Binsfeld, but much of the district is new to her. The Democratic candidate is a long-time school superintendent.
District 53 (Neenah-Menasha) – This district also has no incumbent (the former incumbent was drawn out of the seat in redistricting). The GOP caught a break, however, when former Representative and former Neenah Mayor Dean Kaufert announced he was running. Kaufert will likely have to “swim upstream” a bit, however, as Harris will likely still carry the seat. Trump received 48% here in 2020.
District 21 (Milwaukee area) – This is another district that Harris will likely win, but where the GOP is favored to win at the assembly level due to a popular incumbent (Jessie Rodriguez). Trump received 48% in this district in 2020 but Rodriguez over-performed him by more than 3 points.
District 91 (Eau Claire area) – The district has a Democratic incumbent (Jodi Emerson) but 60% of the population is new for her under the new map. Trump lost here in 2020 by nearly 2,000 votes.
Harris will likely win by 5 points or more
District 51 (Southwest Wisconsin) – This seat is home to one of the state’s best candidates at being able to draw votes from both sides of the aisle. The incumbent is Todd Novak who has, as a Republican, won in this Democratic leaning seat for many years — sometimes just barely. Trump received 46% here in 2020.
Watch the results
So as results come in across the state on Tuesday, these districts could be benchmarks. If presidential turnout in these districts mirror this analysis it is likely the state will be decided by fewer than 50,000 votes.
If one candidate is consistently performing better or worse in these areas, it’s a sign that the race may not be close after all.
