Timing is everything in politics. It can work to a candidate’s advantage or disadvantage. In the 2026 election cycle, Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans based on historical factors and current events. Does that mean Democrats will run the table in Wisconsin? Maybe. But there are mitigating factors that could help Republicans buck the national trends this year.
Candidate quality is the key factor in a successful electoral outcome. After that, it boils down to message, organization, and money (MOM). Both David Crowley and Tom Tiffany pass the candidate quality prerequisite by a considerable margin. You do not win twice as Milwaukee County Executive or four times as a congressman if you are a weak candidate. My friends on the right may disagree with my take on Crowley, but likability is Crowley’s political superpower. Voters tend to overlook certain (not all) policy positions they may disagree with if they like the candidate or incumbent.
Last week Marquette Law School released their final poll on the Wisconsin gubernatorial race that showed Crowley leading Tiffany by 51-44 or by seven points. Marquette Law School does a respectable job with their polling. They typically get it right, but not always.
This one seems off to me. For Crowley to be up by seven, he would need to perform at a level we have not seen in Wisconsin since 2006. Is Crowley leading the gubernatorial race? Absolutely. There also is not a single officially released poll that shows Tiffany leading or above 47%. Here is the historical performance of the past eight Wisconsin gubernatorial races:
| Year | Margin of Victory | Total Votes Cast | Winner Vote Total | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 36.4% | 1,563,835 | 1,051,326 | Thompson |
| 1998 | 21.0% | 1,750,014 | 1,047,716 | Thompson |
| 2002 | 3.7% | 1,775,349 | 800,515 | Doyle |
| 2006 | 7.4% | 2,161,700 | 1,139,115 | Doyle |
| 2010 | 5.8% | 2,160,832 | 1,128,944 | Walker |
| 2014 | 5.7% | 2,410,317 | 1,259,706 | Walker |
| 2018 | 1.1% | 2,673,308 | 1,324,307 | Evers |
| 2022 | 3.4% | 2,656,490 | 1,358,774 | Evers |
For months, Democrats have compared this Wisconsin election cycle to 2006, without noting that JB Van Hollen won his race for Attorney General that year and Republicans retained the Assembly under court-drawn “fair maps.” More on redistricting later.
Both campaigns have focused their messaging on energizing their bases. Midterms are base v. base elections. Affordability appeals to unaffiliated and independent voters, but the core messages target the base. Crowley wants the election to be a referendum on Trump’s performance, a common midterm strategy. Themes of MAGA, Epstein, gas prices, corruption, and the war with Iran reinforce that anti-Trump message, potentially motivating Democrats while discouraging past Trump supporters from voting. Affordability also appears in Crowley’s messaging. His ability to tell voters he hears them is like another likable ninety’s national Democrat (Bill Clinton) who told voters he felt their pain.
Tiffany has talked about issues voters care about according to the Marquette poll. He said he would repeal the 400-year property tax increase veto; cut taxes for the middle class (those making less than $150,000); freeze electric rates; repeal the data center tax incentive; increase funding for public education while also raising academic standards; and a thorough review of all state spending. These are traditional GOP values and have broad appeal. But Tiffany has struggled to create a genuine contrast to these issues with Crowley that causes undecided voters to move in his direction.
I do not think any ad from either side will win a Poly Award later this year. My favorite ad was Breakfast with Tiffany’s. But there was not a defining ad that moved the needle beyond what the political environment was already producing for both sides.
Do not misunderstand what I am saying: Tiffany has run a strong campaign in a very tough year for Republican statewide candidates. He stayed focused and did not make any significant unforced errors. In any other cycle, Tiffany did more than enough to win. But to win this time, Tiffany will need to count on his grassroots operation. His team has said they knocked on more than 1.4 million doors. If those are all previous Trump or GOP voters, that is enough to win this cycle – if the Tiffany team can turn them out. The past two gubernatorial elections had just under 2.68 million voters. Tiffany needs 1.35 million votes to win. That would exceed former GOP Governor Scott Walker’s record Republican total of 1.295,080 million in 2018. Governor Tony Evers holds the state record with 1,358,774 votes in 2022. If Tiffany pulls off an upset, it will be because of the investment his team made in identifying and turning out their voters. Do not forget there are more GOP-leaning voters in Wisconsin than Democrat leaning voters based on the 2024 election results.
Tiffany may have missed chances to rebut misleading Crowley ads. For example, only one bill, H.R. 4405 (Epstein Transparency Act), reached the floor of Congress, and Tiffany voted YES on it. The other votes Crowley cites were procedural votes that the majority party always blocks from the minority, regardless of which party is in control. So, Tiffany DID vote to release the Epstein files. Look it up. Likewise, the claim that Tiffany voted with Trump 100% of the time during Trump’s first two years back in the White House is unremarkable; they are from the same party! Do you know who else voted 100% of the time with President Biden in his first two years? Congressman and Congresswoman Mark Pocan and Gwen Moore – 21 out of twenty-one. Look it up.
Tiffany also had a clear advantage in campaign finances although Crowley was able to match Tiffany’s money in the final few weeks. Having more money does not guarantee a victory, but it does help level the playing field in an otherwise challenging political environment. Tiffany used his early money advantage to introduce himself and define Crowley. He successfully drove up Crowley’s negatives according to the Marquette poll but could not gain the lead in the race at any point.
David Crowley is the favorite to win, which is no surprise given the available polling. But what if the polls are wrong, as they were in the Wisconsin Democratic primary? The key variable is the turnout model pollsters are using nationwide this cycle: does it fairly and accurately capture Republican voters? If the model is flawed, the gap between the candidates (head-to-head) means nothing.
Tom Tiffany will need a Herculean GOP turnout effort to win. The margin matters. The closer Tiffany can keep it, the better it will be for down ballot Republicans.
Democrats should win their first State Senate majority since 2010. There are four competitive races and Democrats only need to hold one incumbent and win two open seats in a strong Democrat year. The only question is whether incumbent Republican Howard Marklein can hang on and keep the new Democrat majority at 17-16.
The Assembly is a toss-up. The GOP has held on in bad years such as 2006, but a couple key retirements have made the map more challenging this cycle. If the GOP holds on, their ceiling is fifty-one seats, and they may come back with a 50-49 majority. If Dems take control their ceiling is fifty-one seats, too. Meaning compromise will be key to passing legislation in the Assembly next session.
Much of the discussion centers on policies Democrats could reverse if they win the trifecta, including Act 10, prevailing wage, and right to work. But potential election changes may alarm conservatives more. For example, under Article IV, Section 3 of the Wisconsin Constitution, the new Democrat majorities and governor may redraw the Wisconsin Congressional maps without any direction from the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The current Congressional maps were drawn by the courts, not the legislature. If we continue to see mid-decennial redistricting in other states in 2027, you can expect it in Wisconsin. Fortunately, the legislative maps cannot be redrawn under the Wisconsin Constitution because they passed the legislature and signed by the Governor. At some point, Speaker Robin Vos and Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu may get credit for preventing a legislative redistricting catastrophe.
If you have not voted yet, exercise your right and have a say in your state and federal government. Every vote matters.
