This year’s extended holiday forecast exceeds pre-pandemic numbers, sets new record
AAA expects record-setting travel numbers for Thanksgiving. Nearly 1.6 million Wisconsinites are forecast to travel 50 miles or more for the holiday. That is an all-time high for Thanksgiving and nearly 35,835 more travelers than last year.
National travel numbers are also expected to set new records with an estimated 79.9 million travelers. The 2% growth equates to 1.7 million more people than the previous record set last year, and 2 million more than in 2019.
These record-setting traveler numbers are being driven by economic growth, declining inflation, and strong income gains, which is expected to boost consumer spending by 4.6% compared to this time last year.
“We expect to see record travel numbers across the board,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “With more people taking to the roads, skies, rails, and sea; travelers should expect congested roads and longer lines at transportation terminals. AAA encourages travelers to develop their plan now and consider travel insurance, which provides compensation for flight cancellations, delays, and lost luggage.”
In effort to better capture the flow of holiday travelers, AAA expanded the number of days in the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. Instead of Wednesday-Sunday, this year’s Thanksgiving holiday travel period is seven days, stretching from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. Additionally, we expanded our historical travel numbers to provide an apples-to-apples comparison.
Thanksgiving Travelers by Mode
Automobile travel will set new records nationwide and in Wisconsin. AAA projects more than 1.4 million Wisconsinites will take a road trip over Thanksgiving – that is 8,101 travelers than the previous record set in 2019.
Gas prices are lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. The state average was $3.00. Currently, Wisconsin drivers are finding an average price of $2.83. Visit GasPrices.AAA.com to view national, state, and regional gas price averages.
Falling oil prices this autumn may help push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since 2021, and that could happen before drivers hit the road for Thanksgiving. Regionally, drivers east of the Rockies will find gas between $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in more than a dozen states.
AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.
Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a new record. Nationally, AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That is an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019.
Domestic airfares are up 3% this year, according to AAA booking data, while the number of bookings are similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.
Other modes of transportation increased 9% from last year. Nationally, nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by various transportation methods including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising.
“The demand for cruises has been red-hot this year,” Haas continued. “Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving. As new ocean and river cruising options have been introduced, more travelers are discovering the value and joy of cruising.”
Best/Worst Times to Drive
According to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights:
- The worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
- The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear.
- Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.
“With a record number of travelers expected to be on the road, drivers should follow traffic apps and local news alerts to avoid major delays,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially important for drivers in metropolitan areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day.”
