I’ve been directly or indirectly involved in Wisconsin gubernatorial races since 1990, and I’ve never seen anything like the chaos unfolding in this Democratic primary.
For those who don’t know my history, I managed the most successful gubernatial campaign in the past century in Wisconsin in 1994. I was also the communications director on the fifth most successful gubernatorial campaign in Wisconsin history in 1990. When I write about Wisconsin gubernatorial campaigns it is always based on my lived experiences. I had Tommy Thompson as my candidate both times. He’s the only person to ever win four 4-year terms as governor. He’s on the Mount Rushmore of Wisconsin politics.
Here’s my updated Power Ranking snapshot now that today’s Marquette/Law Poll (plus newer internals) are public — the officer involved shooting in Madison, and the Dirt McGirk scandal has hit the fan:
Tier I:
1 – Francesca Hong
Widening her lead and showing clear momentum. Multiple polls (including the more current internals from Crowley and Barnes campaigns) confirm she’s pulling away, especially with Rodriguez now out of the race. Hong made her first major mistake last night related to the officer involved shooting in Madison. Wisconsin voters expect their governor to be calm and measured. Hong was unhinged. She’s not running for the 76th Assembly District in Madison. Compare the video of her remarks at the crime scene to Governor Evers statement. The question is whether her opponents will use it against her in the final 19 days. If they don’t, you can bet Tom Tiffany will use it immediately in the general.
Tier II:
2 – Mandela Barnes
All four polls released in the past 48 hours show Mandela Barnes in second place. That is not a surprise. He hasn’t done anything in the past 6 days to cause his supporters to leave him. But he aslo doesn’t appear to have gained any of Sara Rodriguez’s former supporters. He is not gaining on Hong, but caught a break when the Marquette poll said he was the only Democrat (besides Sara Rodriguez) who is currently leading over Tom Tiffany. That is worth a lot in the final days of a primary. David Crowley is nipping at his heel and there could be a major battle between these men over the next week. Both are seeking a one-on-one match-up with Hong.
3 – David Crowley
Crowley reentered the race last Saturday with Governor Evers endorsement and the endorsment of key, powerful trade unions. He is gaining ground as Rodriguez voters become available and insiders try to steer them his way. However, the resurfaced “Dirt McGirk” Twitter account from 2010s — full of offensive posts — is a major new headache that could slow that consolidation or blow up his resurrected campaign altogether. The Marquette poll coming next week will show whether this campaign is a viable alternative to Hong.
The rest of the field:
4-Joel Brennan
Joel Brennan’s campaign came alive in the past ten days. The problem is it is too late to make a serious run with the insiders consolidating behind Crowley instead of him. There is no path to victory. Look for insiders to pressure Brennan to suspend his campaign and support Crowely.
5-Kelda Roys
New polling suggest Roys support hasn’t moved and may have declined since Rodiguez got out. Like Brennan, there is no path to victory. Insiders will pressure her to drop out and support Crowley. But she may stay in, regardless.
Other notes from that MU Law Poll: Evers approval remains remarkably consistent and even up a bit, as I predicted and the early voting/“recall your ballot” debate continues to highlight why shorter mail-in periods make sense.
WEC did the right thing by not allowing mass do-overs, by the way.
I’ll have my full 10-day countdown Power Ranking on August 1. Between the polling shifts, the officer involved shooting in Madison, and the Dirt McGirk bombshell, the July 28 televised debate and next week’s new MU Law School Poll, we will get more clarity.
Until then, expect more volatility as those not named Francesca Hong try to disrupt the trendiness.
