Brand New WOW Wisconsin's rural north now a powerhouse for GOP

Wisconsin’s rural northern counties now a powerhouse for the state’s GOP

By Joe Handrick

Original Publication Date: 11.12.24

During Governor Scott Walker’s remarkable three-peat that began in 2010, he was powered by Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties. Both his raw vote margins and his GOP percentages rose to the point that people began to say, “Wow!” The tri-county suburban area that rings Milwaukee soon became known as WOW in honor of the three county names.

The GOP’s WOW performance peaked in 2014 — slipping significantly in 2016. As was the case elsewhere in the nation, Trump struggled in these suburban areas (compared to past Republicans) at the same time he was gaining in rural areas.

Walker recovered a bit in 2018, but still slipped in WOW compared to his 2014 numbers. In 2020 Trump saw his WOW numbers drop from 2016 and they slipped again in 2024 (even though he won the state).

Below is a graph showing the WOW counties’ performance since 2014 and a graph breaking out the three counties. Washington County has held its own — most of the GOP slippage has been in Ozaukee and Washington Counties. One could make a case that the old WOW! is now just Wow. One capital letter. No exclamation point.

This raises the question: If Trump slipped in the suburbs from 2020 to 2024, how did he go from a loss in 2020 to a statewide win in 2024? The answer: Rural Wisconsin. Trump’s 2024 numbers in outstate Wisconsin (defined as the area not in the highly populated south or the highly populated Fox Valley) rose both in terms of percentage and raw margin.

Could it be that the counties of this northern tier are the new WOW — Wisconsin’s Outstate Wonders?

Below is a map showing a contiguous group of 19 counties that runs the entire width of the state. A case can be made this group of counties is as important to GOP election hopes as is the old suburban WOW.

“Hold on,” you may say, “those are all sparsely populated counties!” True, but collectively they are equal to or more powerful than the southern WOW. Consider the data from the following chart. Population is roughly equal, but the northern WOW produced a greater Trump margin and a greater Trump percentage than did the southern WOW.

Much of this northern tier, as recently as 2011, was represented in Congress by Democrat powerhouse Dave Obey. Now Democrats can barely break 35% in Obey’s old seat. A closer look at one of those counties demonstrates how the region has changed over time. For decades Rusk County was a Democratic stronghold in northwest Wisconsin. Take a look at how it has been trending lately:

To be clear, the GOP cannot win Wisconsin without the southern suburban WOW vote. Trump’s statewide margin in Wisconsin was about 30,000 votes and he won the southern WOW by 94,000 votes. This having been said, the new election night jaw-dropper for Republicans — the area that makes observers go, “WOW!” — may now lie in the great north. “Crucial Waukesha County” may be replaced in the lexicon of election observers with “Crucial Minocqua (and Wabeno, and Ladysmith, and Chippewa Falls…)”