Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 52% to 48% among Wisconsin registered voters in the new Marquette Law School Poll. Among likely voters, it is the same: Harris 52%, Trump 48%.
Those numbers include initially undecided voters who were asked whom they would pick if they had to choose.
The race moved a little since July, when Trump had 50% to Harris’ 49% among registered voters.
The full ballot
With every candidate on the Wisconsin ballot included, likely voters break this way:
- Harris, 48%
- Trump, 43%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 6%
- Libertarian Chase Oliver, 1%
- Green Party candidate Jill Stein, 1%
- Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry, 1%
- Independent Cornel West, 1%
Kennedy suspended his campaign Aug. 23, before the poll went into the field, but his name stays on the Wisconsin ballot. Asked about it, 86% of voters said they had heard he dropped out.
Senate
Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 52% to 48% among registered voters and 52% to 47% among likely voters, again counting undecided voters who were pushed to choose.
Asked the first time, registered voters gave Baldwin 48% and Hovde 44%, with 8% undecided.
With the independent candidates included, Baldwin gets 51%, Hovde 45%, Phil Anderson of the “Disrupt the Corruption” party 2% and Thomas Leager of the “America First” party 2%. The numbers are the same among registered and likely voters.
Who voters think will win
Asked who will win in November, 48% said Harris will definitely or probably win, 41% said Trump and 11% didn’t know. In July, 51% expected Trump to win and 39% expected Harris.
Democrats have also caught up on enthusiasm. In this survey, 72% of Democrats said they are “very enthusiastic” about voting, up from 40% in June. Among Republicans, 63% said the same.
About the poll
The survey was conducted Aug. 28 to Sept. 5 and interviewed 822 Wisconsin registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The likely voter sample of 738 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.
